The 2012 year will be complicated because of the crisis in the Euro-zone. Yet, for the time being, we do not speak about the 2009 scenarios, when the economies from the region decreased, including the Moldovan one, the governor of the National Bank of Moldova (BNM), Dorin Dragutanu, has told MOLDPRES.
In 2009, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped to minus 4 per cent and the economies from the region contracted. Russia's economy decreased by 5-6 per cent and the one of Ukraine by 15 per cent. The BRENT oil price sharply diminished under 80 dollars per barrel. Now, a 0.3-per cent decrease in the GDP of the euro-zone countries is forecast and the oil price will be relatively stable and will maintain at over 100 dollars per barrel. Russia cannot but have an increase of at least 3 per cent with such prices. And if Russia has such a growth, we have nothing to do but to watch our time, Dragutanu also said.
The BNM governor rules out the fact that, in 2012, Moldova may find itself in the situation of 2009. "We will have an economic growth in 2012. Yet, it will be lower than expected. Nevertheless, the situation might change during the next three-four months, and then our GDP will be even better," Dorin Dragutanu stressed.
The BNM governor emphasized that the present situation "requires prudence on behalf of decision-makers in terms of economic stabilization policies and early identification and implementation of measures to counteract potential negative effects on the economic activity and stimulate the domestic demand."
Last November, the BNM started undertaking measures to overcome this more difficult period easier by lowering the basic rate from 10 to 6.5 per cent several times.
The International Monetary Fund has recently said that, after a good growth of the Moldovan economy in 2011, "a tempering of the economic growth is probable in 2012, against the background of a slowing down of the economic growth pace in the states that are Moldova's main trade partners."
Moldpres